Tampa Bay converted 8 of 15 third downs while Carolina went 1 for 8, and that disparity decided the Buccaneers’ 16-14 victory on January 3, 2026 at Raymond James Stadium.
Cade Otton caught seven passes for 94 yards and a touchdown for Tampa Bay. Bryce Young threw for 266 yards and two scores for Carolina, but the Panthers gained only 19 rushing yards. Derrick Brown recorded 13 tackles. Lavonte David recovered a fourth-quarter fumble to preserve Tampa Bay’s win.
The Buccaneers ran 42 times for 140 yards. Carolina managed 19 yards on 14 carries. Tampa Bay had lost seven of nine games entering this matchup. Steady rain favored their ground attack.
Table of Contents
Complete Statistics
| Category | Carolina | Tampa Bay |
|---|---|---|
| Final Score | 14 | 16 |
| Total Plays | 49 | 66 |
| Total Yards | 285 | 338 |
| Passing Yards | 266 | 198 |
| Rushing Yards | 19 | 140 |
| First Downs | 16 | 21 |
| 3rd Down | 1/8 (12.5%) | 8/15 (53.3%) |
| 4th Down | 2/2 | 0/0 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 5-46 | 6-45 |
| Time of Possession | 22:35 | 37:25 |
Tampa Bay held the ball for nearly 38 minutes and ran 17 more plays. The Buccaneers turned the ball over once compared to Carolina’s three giveaways. Carolina ran just 49 plays because they couldn’t convert third downs and extend drives.
Quarterback Performance
| Stats | Baker Mayfield | Bryce Young |
|---|---|---|
| Comp/Att | 16/22 (72.7%) | 24/35 (68.6%) |
| Passing Yards | 203 | 266 |
| Yards Per Attempt | 9.2 | 7.6 |
| TD/INT | 1/1 | 2/1 |
| Passer Rating | 97.3 | 98.0 |
| Sacks Taken | 2 | 0 |
| Rushing Yards | 31 | -1 |
Mayfield’s biggest play came with 2:12 remaining and Tampa Bay facing third-and-four from their own 35. He rolled right and hit Otton for 20 yards, draining the clock. The completion allowed the Buccaneers to possess the ball until 18 seconds remained.
Young connected on fourth-and-eight from Carolina’s 31 with 2:30 left, launching deep down the sideline to Tetairoa McMillan for 40 yards while covered by two defenders. Young hit Jalen Coker two plays later for an eight-yard touchdown, cutting the lead to 16-14.
“We had an opportunity to take it. Now we have to leave it in someone else’s hands,” Young said.
Christian Rozeboom intercepted Mayfield in the second quarter, returning it 20 yards to Tampa Bay’s 19 and setting up Carolina’s first touchdown. Jacob Parrish picked off Young late in the first half at the Buccaneers’ 42, leading to a Chase McLaughlin field goal.
Mayfield finished 2025 with 3,755 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. His 382 rushing yards established a career high. Young completed his second season with 3,011 passing yards and 23 touchdown passes, both career highs.
Rushing Statistics
Tampa Bay
| Player | Carries | Yards | Average | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 26 | 85 | 3.3 | 9 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 11 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 7 | 0 |
| Total | 42 | 140 | 3.3 | 11 | 0 |
Carolina
| Player | Carries | Yards | Average | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 14 | 19 | 1.4 | 5 | 0 |
Tampa Bay’s 121-yard rushing advantage was their largest margin of the season. Carolina’s 19 rushing yards were the second-lowest total Tampa Bay’s defense allowed all season. The Buccaneers held New England to minus-1 rushing yard on October 3, 2001.
Irving carried 26 times, a career high. He led Tampa Bay with 588 rushing yards despite missing seven games. Carolina averaged 23.0 rushing attempts in their nine losses compared to 31.8 attempts in their eight victories. With only 14 attempts here, the Panthers couldn’t sustain drives or control possession.
“They disrupted us up front,” Carolina head coach Dave Canales said. “They fit their gaps and made sure we were getting ones, twos, and threes.”
Receiving Leaders
Tampa Bay
| Player | Pos | Targets | Rec | Yards | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | TE | 9 | 7 | 94 | 13.4 | 22 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | WR | 2 | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 21 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | RB | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 2 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 13 | 0 |
Otton posted a season-high 94 yards. His 18-yard touchdown on Tampa Bay’s opening drive gave the Buccaneers a 7-0 lead. Otton now has 2,025 receiving yards in his first 63 career games, the most by any Tampa Bay tight end through that span.
Carolina
| Player | Pos | Targets | Rec | Yards | Avg | Long | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 6 | 4 | 85 | 21.3 | 40 | 0 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | 7 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 18 | 1 |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | 4 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 17 | 1 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | 4 | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 12 | 0 |
McMillan’s 40-yard grab in the fourth quarter pushed him to 1,014 yards for the season, breaking Kelvin Benjamin’s 2014 franchise record of 1,008 yards by a rookie receiver. He totaled 70 receptions, seven touchdowns, and 27 explosive plays of 15-plus yards in his first NFL season.
“Everybody on the sideline knew when I broke it and knew I hit 1,000 yards,” McMillan said. “I just had a quick moment where I felt appreciated, but then, I got to click into that mode to where we want to go down and win the game.”
Officials flagged McMillan for offensive pass interference in the third quarter, erasing a 32-yard gain. Referee Brad Allen said the receiver “created separation more than one yard downfield, which by rule is illegal.”
Coker’s eight-yard touchdown with 2:27 left cut Tampa Bay’s lead to two points. Tremble caught a touchdown in the second quarter that made it 10-7.
Defense
Brown’s 13 tackles were the most by any NFL defensive lineman in a single game during 2025. He played 63 of Carolina’s 67 defensive snaps (94 percent). Nic Scourton added a half-sack and three quarterback pressures, giving him 5.0 sacks and 31 pressures for the year, the most pressures by a Panthers rookie.
Carolina’s defense got two sacks. Tre’von Moehrig recorded one while Krys Barnes and Scourton split another.
David’s fumble recovery turned the game. With Tampa Bay leading 16-7 early in the fourth quarter, Carolina drove to the Buccaneers’ 20-yard line. On first-and-10, Canales called a flea flicker. Rico Dowdle slipped on the wet turf trying to pitch the ball back to Young. David recovered at Tampa Bay’s 29 with 11:04 remaining.
The recovery was David’s 21st career fumble recovery, giving him 35 career takeaways. Since at least 1982, only three players have 40-plus sacks and 35-plus takeaways: Ray Lewis (41.5 sacks, 51 takeaways), Brian Urlacher (41.5 sacks, 38 takeaways), and David (42.5 sacks, 35 takeaways).
Rozeboom’s interception midway through the second quarter set up Carolina’s first score. He jumped Mayfield’s route and returned it 20 yards to Tampa Bay’s 19. Three plays later, Young hit Tremble for an eight-yard touchdown, cutting the deficit to 10-7.
Parrish’s interception late in the first half gave Tampa Bay momentum. The rookie cornerback read Young’s eyes and broke on the ball at the 42 with 1:51 remaining. The Buccaneers converted the turnover into McLaughlin’s 36-yard field goal for a 13-7 halftime lead.
Fourth Quarter Sequence
Tampa Bay led 16-7 when Carolina reached the Buccaneers’ 20 with 11:18 left. On first-and-10, Canales called a flea flicker. Dowdle took the handoff, slipped, and tried to flip the ball back to Young as he fell. Young couldn’t handle it cleanly. David recovered.
Tampa Bay ran six plays over six minutes before McLaughlin’s 38-yard field goal attempt was blocked by Cam Jackson with 5:23 left. The block gave Carolina possession at their 24, trailing by nine points.
Young went incomplete on three straight passes before facing fourth-and-eight from the 31. He launched deep to McMillan for 40 yards, keeping the drive alive while also surpassing Benjamin’s rookie record. Young hit Coker for the touchdown two plays later.
Tampa Bay got the ball back with 2:27 remaining. On third-and-four from their 35, Mayfield found Otton for 20 yards. Riley Dixon’s punt with 18 seconds left pinned Carolina at their three, ending the game.
Special Teams
Chase McLaughlin connected from 29, 36, and 48 yards for Tampa Bay. Cam Jackson blocked McLaughlin’s 38-yard attempt in the fourth quarter, giving Carolina life. McLaughlin finished 2025 at 32-of-37 (86.5 percent) and moved into eighth place on Tampa Bay’s all-time scoring list with 392 career points.
Ryan Fitzgerald missed Carolina’s only field goal attempt, a 54-yarder early in the third quarter. Riley Dixon placed all three punts inside Carolina’s 20, with his final punt pinning the Panthers at their three-yard line with 18 seconds left.
Red Zone and Third Down
Tampa Bay reached the red zone four times, scoring a touchdown on their opening drive, kicking two field goals, and having one field goal attempt blocked. Carolina made three red zone trips and scored touchdowns on two. Tampa Bay’s 8-of-15 third-down conversion rate allowed them to sustain drives and control possession. The Panthers couldn’t stay on the field, gaining just 16 first downs compared to Tampa Bay’s 21.
Playoff Aftermath
Tampa Bay needed New Orleans to defeat or tie Atlanta on Sunday, January 4 to clinch the NFC South. The Falcons won 16-14, creating a three-way tie at 8-9 between Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.
Carolina’s 3-1 record in head-to-head games gave them the division crown. The Panthers hosted the Los Angeles Rams in the Wild Card round on January 10, losing 34-31. Tampa Bay’s season ended at 8-9, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
Final Analysis
Converting on third downs made the difference. Tampa Bay’s 8-of-15 success rate against Carolina’s 1-of-8 performance created a 15-minute possession advantage. The 121-yard rushing differential controlled the clock. Irving gained 3.3 yards per carry on 26 attempts while Carolina’s running backs combined for 20 yards on 12 carries.
Both teams finished 8-9. Tampa Bay won but needed help that never came. Carolina lost but won the division through tiebreakers, then lost their playoff opener. Tampa Bay controlled this game with their ground attack and ability to extend drives in wet conditions. Carolina couldn’t establish the run or convert third downs, leaving Young to throw 35 times in steady rain.
For complete coverage, check NFL.com’s recap, Tampa Bay’s post-game report, Carolina’s analysis, and PFF’s advanced metrics. For year-round NFL coverage, visit The Sportie.
